In April of this year, sales in the domestic automotive market began to decline, and the growth rate decreased by 8.24% month-on-month, but it did not cause too much attention in the industry. After a further drop of 20.43% in May, sellers began to lose their breath, calling it "black May", and most manufacturers thought that it was just a short-term correction of the market. Experts believe that the market's early growth is too high, the callback is normal, and it still has full confidence in the high growth of the market this year. It is absolutely sure that there will be no problem if the annual growth rate is 20%.

Originally thought that the Beijing International Auto Show in June could make the automobile market warmer, but unexpectedly, it was known as the largest "feast" in the history of Chinese cars. Not only did it not bring prosperity to the auto market, but the auto market after the auto show was even more deserted. There has been a hot car market and a cold market. As a rule, the so-called “golden nine silver ten” that should appear in automobile sales has not only failed to emerge this year, but the sales situation in September has become more severe. Some manufacturers’ sales have nearly stopped for the first half of the month, and the auto market is completely unable to see the prospect of recovery.

The depressing scene of the sudden advent of the auto market can be said that the car industry has no ideological preparations. In recent years, experts have always said that China is the world’s largest auto market and that it has at least a decade of rapid growth. It is confident that in 2005 it is likely to surpass Japan and become the world’s second largest market. At the beginning of this year, various manufacturers were actively preparing for the war, and they were impacted by 5,500,000 vehicles. As the world's third-largest market, how could you say that you were cold and cold? It is hard to accept.

With regard to this drastic change in the market, the experts could not give convincing reasons and simply attributed to the influence of “macro-control”, and they always felt a bit reluctant. This adjustment is not only different from the overall tightening in 1989 and 1993, but also different from the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The overall economic growth rate of the country has not been significantly reduced, and it does not include automobiles in several industries that control overheating. . Even the strictly controlled steel and real estate industries have not experienced such a big decline as automobiles. Moreover, now that automobiles have been dominated by publicly-owned cars, they are mainly turned into private cars, and the impact of policy adjustments should be greatly reduced. As for the impact of the tightening of auto credit, experts also believe that the same cannot be “extremely exaggerated.” Compared with western countries, the current proportion of China’s total car sales is not high.

Since June, car manufacturers have continuously lowered their prices, and new products have been launched frequently since September. In the past, these one-time-use devices were not only unable to mobilize consumers’ buying enthusiasm, but also reduced the price and introduced more new products. The more it reinforces the psychology of consumers to buy coins for purchase. Reduced production and overstocking have already squeezed many companies. According to the annual report of the US JPMorgan Chase Bank, this year China's car supply capacity is 11% excess, and in 2005 it will reach 23%. This is obviously an over-conservative estimate because after the company repeatedly reduced its production plan, there was still a backlog of 400,000 cars. In January-August, it sold only 1.5 million vehicles. The leaders of the market, Shanghai Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen, increased by only 1.89% and 6.8%. Obviously, China's auto overcapacity has been confirmed.

What is more noteworthy is that, since last year, led by the Volkswagen Group, almost all multinational companies have announced that they will increase investment in China, and every family is generous, at every turn, billions of dollars and euros. Chinese independent enterprises are not far behind, and Chery and Geely have to reach 600,000 vehicles. According to various published development plans, by 2010, the production capacity of Chinese automobiles will greatly exceed 12 million vehicles.

Considering that Chinese autos lack a self-owned brand and lack the capability for independent development, people are most worried that Chinese cars will repeat Brazil's mistakes. Due to the high growth of the market in recent years, it has attracted car companies from all over the world to vie for investment. It seems to have played down the shadow of Brazil. Now that the market growth rate has slowed down, there is a serious surplus in production capacity, and multinational companies will not withdraw from it. China's automobile makes us the next "Brazil"? At present, it has once again become the topic of discussion in the Chinese automobile industry.

We believe that China is different from Brazil. Despite the automobile development path, China and Brazil have many similarities and even similarities, such as the introduction of foreign capital, lack of independent brands and research and development capabilities, but China’s auto vehicles. Companies are all joint ventures, and China has 50% of the shares, while Brazil is basically a wholly foreign-owned enterprise. Once the market shrinks, it is relatively easy for foreign capital to withdraw funds from Brazil. If people pat the buttocks, they will leave. In China, it will be more troublesome. They will have to discuss each other's affairs. And if they really take half, we will not be able to do it completely. Car.

Moreover, Brazil’s population is 165 million, roughly one-eighth that of China. In 1998, the per capita national income of Brazil has reached 4671 U.S. dollars, and there are 18.65 million cars in the country, which is higher than China's total car ownership in 2001. Among them, there are more than 14.9 million sedan cars. Last year, the per capita national income of our country just reached US$1,000. In 2002, only 12 million passenger cars, including large, medium, light, micro, and sedan cars, were used. Compared with Brazil, our market potential is still far from being fulfilled. The current overcapacity is only a phased excess. It will cause business difficulties and reduce profits. Some companies will also be eliminated. However, as an industry, there is still a lot of room for development. The multinational corporations know this very clearly. They are afraid that they will not be in a hurry and will never give up.

On June 24th this year, General Motors moved its Asia Pacific headquarters to Shanghai. The reporter once asked its chairman and chief executive officer Wagner why he was in a contrarian situation during the downturn of the Chinese auto market and announced a capital increase of US$3 billion. Market risk. Wagner replied: “Even if it is said that China surpassed Japan in 2010 and became the second-largest market in the world, it was a conservative estimate. Under such a background, the risk of not investing in China’s investment is far more serious. More than our current investment scale."

Nissan’s chairman and CEO Ghosn, despite the fact that its joint venture’s sales in China had a significant decrease from last year, still feel satisfied after his visit to China in July this year. He believes that the US market grew by only 1% in the first half of the year. Europe is 0, while Japan still has negative growth. In comparison, China's growth rate is quite fast. He said: "The investment decisions we announced are based on a more conservative attitude. The strategy for investing in the medium-term three years will not change." Nakamura Katsumi, president of Dongfeng Motor Co., Ltd., put it more straightforward: “From a global point of view, it is normal for a car's production capacity to exceed demand and it is a very common thing.”

Although the Volkswagen Group announced that it will slow down its investment in China in the near future, it also announced that it will not reduce its investment plans. In response, Chang An Ford Motor Co., Ltd. not only increased the production capacity of Chongqing to 200,000 vehicles, but also announced that it will build another 200,000-capacity new plant in Nanjing.

GM's chairman and chief executive officer, Mo Fei, pointed out the secret: In fact, no company will build several new plants at the same time. It is everyone's practice to build new plants while watching the market. If everyone implements the announced future capacity plan, there may be 14 million vehicles by 2010, but in reality everyone will not do that.

China is a huge market. No one will give up. Chinese cars will not become the second Brazil.



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