According to the sales data obtained from the manufacturers, the sales volume of the heavy truck market in October totaled about 92,000 units, which was 32.14% higher than the 69,600 units in the same period of last year. Although the sales volume decreased in September, it still has been in 2010. The highest record of sales in the same month.

Since the beginning of this year, the heavy truck market has continued to be hot, which once subverted industry expectations. As for the market's soaring situation, industry experts believe that the first is that the new version of GB1589 and the "9.21" Governance Policy have released a large number of market demand; the second is that China's economic stability is improving, which has led to the recovery of coal transportation demand and manufacturing; A number of positive factors, such as infrastructure construction and investment, have led to a significant increase in sales of heavy trucks.

However, we also saw that although the sales of heavy trucks in October were gratifying, they gradually showed signs of fatigue compared with the previous strong growth rate.

4 super-10,000 "Silver Ten" results are not inferior

Judging from the performance of various heavy truck companies, there are four heavy truck enterprises that sold more than 10,000 vehicles in October, namely FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng Commercial Vehicle, Heavy Duty Truck and Shaanxi Automobile. Except for the year-on-year growth in sales of Jianghuai and Hualing, the top ten heavy-duty truck companies maintained their growth momentum. It is worth mentioning that SAIC Hongyan showed its strong growth momentum with three-digit year-on-year growth data.

Heavy truck company sales in October

Specifically, in the first camp, FAW liberated 22,000 vehicles, an increase of 18.01% year-on-year, still firmly in the top spot; Dongfeng commercial vehicles ranked second with a monthly sales volume of 17,100 vehicles; China National Heavy Duty Truck It has maintained its growth momentum. In October, it sold 14,800 heavy trucks, a year-on-year increase of 47.26%.

In the second camp, Shaanxi Automobile achieved sales of 13,500 vehicles in October, an increase of 48.88%. It is worth noting that in September, Shaanxi Auto has completed the newly set 130,000 targets for the whole year of 2017. This month, the target of “150,000 vehicles” that it is trying to accomplish is only less than 7,000. In the smooth forward, Futian sold about 9,800 heavy trucks in October, a year-on-year increase of 51.63%.

In the sixth place, Jianghuai's sales in October were 4,000 units, a slight decrease of 4.15% year-on-year; SAIC Hongyan became a group of dark horses in the industry with sales of 3,611 units in October (up year-on-year growth rate of 225.61%). From January to October, SAIC Hongyan sold a total of 36,600 heavy trucks, and its market share rose to 3.84%. According to industry experts, since SAIC increased capital and shares, SAIC Hongyan has accelerated its development and kept up with the national policy, always maintaining the first place in the sales growth of the top ten major heavy truck companies.

The results of the Universiade in October were also very bright, with 2,504 vehicles sold, up 8.45% year-on-year; Hualing sold 1,320 heavy trucks, down 15.38% year-on-year; although Beiben only sold 1,102 vehicles, compared with the year-on-year sales base Small, so achieved a growth rate of 20.44% year on year.

Multiple factors promote the heavy truck market to move forward

"Since this year, the heavy-duty truck market has not been weak in the off-season and the peak season is booming. Nowadays, the production lines of major heavy-duty truck companies are still in full operation, which reflects the trend of the heavy truck market all the way." National Commercial Vehicle Parts Production and Marketing Federation Yan Lixing, executive vice president, told the China Auto News that the prosperity of the heavy truck market is inseparable from the stability of China's macro economy.

"First, the release of GB1589-2016 and the release of the national governance policy have driven the continuous improvement of the heavy truck market. Second, with the deepening of the supply-side reform, the industrial sector's de-capacity, deleveraging, and old and new kinetic energy conversion effects have emerged. The coal production capacity decreased and the price continued to remain high. Third, the natural gas price dropped and the natural gas heavy truck sales surged. Fourth, the national “One Belt, One Road” initiative continued to bring new opportunities to the heavy truck export market. In addition, due to the continuous national environmental protection policy Adding strictness, the 'National Three' heavy truck has also gradually been phased out, which has also brought about a certain market gap.” Jia Jinqiong, Chief of the Policy Research Department of Shaanxi Heavy Vehicle Co., Ltd., gave his own analysis in a concise manner.

Of course, regional policies have also brought certain benefits to the heavy truck market. Jia Qiongjing said, "Beijing issued the "Promoting High-emission Old Diesel Freight Cars Elimination Plan", which pointed out that qualified heavy-duty diesel vehicles can be subsidized up to 100,000 yuan, which brings the enthusiasm of customers to replace new cars. Shenzhen, Hangzhou and other places We are also actively pursuing the policy of guiding the scrapping of old diesel vehicles in the country."

It’s not easy to get tired and heavy card "winter"

However, it is undeniable that the 32% year-on-year growth rate in October is the lowest monthly growth rate since this year. In October, the sales volume of heavy trucks fell by nearly 10% from the previous month, and the demand for industrial orders fell by about 20%. This reflects the fact that the blowout market has started to show signs of weakness since October last year, and there is a greater possibility of a year-on-year decline in November and December.

In addition to the gradual saturation of heavy truck market demand, the restrictions on coal road transport port restrictions, environmental protection and production stoppages have also affected the consumption demand of heavy trucks in various regions. The Ministry of Environmental Protection pointed out in the "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas in the autumn and winter of 2017-2018 air pollution comprehensive management action plan", during the heating season, stop all kinds of road works, water conservancy projects and other earthwork operations and house demolition and construction; The company has carried out peak production and transportation, and continued to carry out intensive supervision of air pollution prevention and control. Therefore, some insiders have analyzed that the heavy truck market may be a bit difficult this winter.

"From the October sales data, there has been a trend of slowdown in growth." Jia Qiongjing said that although the national governance policy is still maintaining a high pressure, the release period of the policy brought to the market is nearing its end, "the heavy truck market in 2017 is super It is expected that policy will be the main factor, but GB1589 will continue to have an impact on the market, so there will be no cliff-like decline in the future, but a process of gradual decline."

Yan Lixing also agreed with the above viewpoint. He pointed out that there will be peak sales periods such as “Double Eleven” and “Double Twelve” after October, which is also the peak period of the logistics market. This is also a good development period for commercial vehicles. “The fourth quarter heavy truck market may have some Fluctuations, but there will be no significant declines."

For the prospect of the heavy truck market, the sales director of a commercial vehicle company is optimistic. “As the country’s management of the heavy truck industry becomes more and more strict, more unqualified heavy truck brands will be eliminated, which also determines that the demand for heavy trucks is continuous. In addition, more and more market segments have been developed. For example, car transport, express logistics, natural gas heavy trucks, etc., will all be new growth points.” He pointed out that the rising demand for cargo transportation brought about by the national economic recovery is the fundamental reason for the heavy truck market to maintain a good momentum. The growth situation is still expected.

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