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The overall stability of the domestic market The reporter learned from the industry yesterday that the overall domestic market conditions last week, stable, only the relatively scarce resources in South China, Northwest China, the main unit of external control sales.
According to information from the National Association of Industry and Commerce Petroleum Chamber of Commerce, the overall purchase and sale of the Shanghai Cheti market has returned to dull in the past week, and billing users have decreased. Sinopec's gasoline and diesel quotation is located at the retail price in order to guarantee the supply of retail and direct sales users. The agricultural oil in the northeastern market was fully started, the demand for diesel No. 0 increased, and the main unit controlled the wholesale in order to ensure the retail sector, and the market conditions remained stable. The purchase and sale in Tangshan market is relatively flat. The practitioners are more concerned about the country’s recent subsidy measures and are more cautious in operation.
In the southern region, the Guangzhou market continues to dominate sales, and market resources are still small. The market price in Zhongshan has stabilized across the board, and the main sales are normal. There are fewer purchases of large orders, and the price range of social units is relatively large, but the quality of low-priced oil is not good. In Maoming market, the main unit of gasoline is stopped for many days, and users are mainly digesting inventory. Currently, they enter the fill-in period, and have a higher interest in gasoline, while diesel is relatively flat. The resources in the Kunming market are relatively tight recently. Gas stations are sold on schedule. The main business is the retail market, which is in short supply. Local industry sources expect that the resources in the later period will remain tight. The main business is to control sales. The wholesale link still only guarantees contract users and key customers, and stops other batches.
In the short term, it is unlikely that the price adjustment will cause the “abnormal†phenomenon that the international oil price will hit new highs while the domestic market trend has stabilized, and people in the industry believe that the main reason is that the state’s high-profile announcement of subsidy measures has dispelled speculators’ expectations of price adjustments for refined products.
A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance announced the return of value-added tax on certain oil products imported by the two major companies in the second quarter. In addition, starting from April 1 this year, the central government will give appropriate subsidies to the losses caused by the import of crude oil from the two companies, and the grant funds will be allocated and cleared on a monthly basis.
“This shows that the possibility of adjusting the pricing mechanism for refined oil prices in the short-term is negligible, unless the international oil price rises abnormally and uncontrollably, otherwise it will basically confirm that China's refined oil price level will be maintained in the short term. In the future, adjustments to the petrochemical industry will be implemented. More will be tax adjustments, such as oil profits tax, crude oil import value-added tax return, etc., price formation mechanism of refined oil prices with crude oil prices is difficult to implement in the short term.†Analyst Liu Youcheng of Hongyuan Securities analyst said.
An analyst at Siemno Energy believes that the country’s high-profile announcement of policies and its early announcement at the beginning of the quarter have revealed that the huge import VAT exemption quota surprised the market. Because this policy shows that China will import large quantities of refined oil in the second quarter and importers' ability to withstand oil prices will further strengthen, this will inevitably cause foreign traders to attach great importance to raising the export price to China.
"Despite the unfavorable factors such as rising import costs, the announcement will mean that the country will send a strong signal to the people: The government will not hesitate to spend a lot of money, but also guarantees the supply of the refined oil market for the Olympic Year, and its determination to stabilize the price level. The person said.
This reporter learned that as early as November 2007 to March 2008, the country had a similar tax reduction policy for refined oil products, but it was only internally circulated, and did not disclose the credit limit. However, the country issued a high-profile external notice in advance to clarify the import quantity and execution time.
Analysts also believe that the country’s announcement prior to the release of CPI data in the first quarter also shows its determination to control the rise in price levels, suggesting that the chances of a rise in refined oil retail prices in the second quarter are slim. According to statistics, the mid-price gasoline and diesel retail prices were raised by RMB 500/ton on November 1, 2007, which directly affected the monthly CPI increase by 0.05%. A major task of the Chinese government in 2008 was to control the rise in the price level. Although the oil giants frequently reported news of price adjustment applications since February, the country has always made up for the loss of the two major groups by increasing financial subsidies. Raise the quasi-price of refined oil products.
CNPC insiders also said that although the two companies may not be able to use 3.5 billion tons of import subsidy quotas, but the second quarter is much higher than the previous import is an established policy, which is bound to expand domestic supply, thereby stabilizing and may suppress from March The wholesale price of refined oil, which has been hovering at high levels, has controlled the CPI price index to rise further.
The import effect is immediate. In addition, a large amount of imported diesel oil will play a “immediate effect†on the stability of domestic refined oil, which is much faster than the large amount of imported crude oil. Analysts pointed out that although domestic refineries can achieve domestic supply reduction by importing large quantities of crude oil, the Olympic Games will soon be held in less than four months, which will have the urgency of stabilizing the market. , shipments and longer processing periods cannot immediately ease market supply in the second quarter. Not only that, but also has the advantage of imports of refined oil is easily tracked by the relevant state departments from the customs, unlike the import of crude oil to be processed by the refineries around the country, through more channels, the difficulty of government regulation and control.
However, Siwang Energy Analysts believe that the recent announcement of the country’s import VAT retreat, direct financial subsidies, and other policies of Sinopec are all measures of equity that have been difficult to adjust to refined oil prices, with short-term and macro The rationality can ease the momentary contradiction. In the long run, there may be greater risks to the domestic refined oil market.
"The long-term energy subsidy policy violates China's long-term national policy of energy-saving and emission reduction and energy efficiency improvement, and it also violates the laws of the market economy. The fundamental method of treating the symptoms is still to choose the right time to integrate with the international market, and to rationalize the domestic refined oil prices. To reflect the scarcity and the necessary environmental costs." The above person said.
Despite the high international oil price during the same period, the wholesale price of domestic gasoline and diesel did not fluctuate significantly. With the continuous introduction of importation of value-added tax for refined oil imports and monthly subsidy for refining losses this month, the domestic refined oil market remained basically stable last week. The industry believes that the central government's recent adjustment of the benchmark retail price of refined oil is very unlikely.