China's auto and parts industry is expected to exceed earnings expectations

Notice on Using the Functions of Industry Websites and Promoting Industry Information Work In September, the overall sales of automobiles reached 1.5567 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 16.89% and a year-on-year increase of 17.73%. From a month-on-month perspective, the average of September-to-September-to-September 2009 rose 18.04% compared to August, and it remained stable in September. Since the mid-late-July of this year, the “price-for-money change” has driven the auto market to pick up steadily. The August sales rebounded in advance and did not overdraw the follow-up performance. The traditional peak season that began in September makes the auto market still worth looking forward to.

As of September, the cumulative sales this year were about 13,139,400, an increase of 36.2% year-on-year. It is expected that the auto and auto parts industry will go out of the “high and stable” situation throughout the year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25%, which is expected to slightly exceed market expectations. Due to the existence of economies of scale, the profitability of the industry is also expected to exceed expectations in the absence of a vicious price war.

The sales growth in the first 9 months is seen from the sales data of the passenger vehicle market. We think that the entire industry will spend the off-season with “price-for-money” through the off-season. After entering September, it is expected to further stabilize with the stimulus of a more relaxed energy-saving vehicle subsidy policy. With the expected end of year-end purchase tax reduction policy of 2.5%, auto consumption is expected to be stimulated.

The mainstream companies in the heavy truck industry have shifted from very cautious to neutral. We maintain our judgment of “preceding high and stable after the year” and sales from October to December are expected to be around 60,000 to 70,000. It is expected that the tractor market will still be difficult to start, flatbed vehicles will remain stable, and dump trucks will maintain high growth rates before the end of the year. The current mainstream companies' view of the ratio of deposits and sales is moderately optimistic, and the two-fold ratio of deposits and loans is considered acceptable. In the case where industry capacity is no longer a limiting factor, we must focus on changes in market share, which often reflect the company's core capabilities. In addition, the relationship between upstream and downstream companies in the industry also needs attention at the end of the year, especially whether there are variables in the maintenance of the relationship between parts companies and OEMs that have always had a monopoly position.

In September, the number of passenger vehicles sold was 12,1140,000, an increase of 19.3% year-on-year and a month-on-month increase of approximately 18.89%. The chain performance was slightly better than the historical period; commercial vehicle sales were 348,200, an increase of 9.0% year-on-year, and an increase of 8.2% from August. About 0.8%, an increase of 13.84% from the previous quarter, and sales have clearly recovered. Observing the accumulated data for the first nine months of this year, passenger cars and commercial vehicles respectively sold a total of 9,897,300 vehicles and 3,421,100 vehicles, an increase of 36.9% and 34.3% respectively year-on-year. The rapid growth of sales and the return to normal seasonal performance indicate that the automotive industry will be a good year this year.

The share of passenger cars with small-displacement capacity increased by approximately 823,000 passenger cars in September and 1.6L in September, representing an increase of nearly 20% from the previous quarter, accounting for 68% of the total sales volume of passenger cars. The market share increased slightly compared to August. The growth rate is 17.98%. Since the introduction of the energy-saving subsidy policy, the small-displacement passenger vehicle has been continuously affected by the market share that has been positively affected.

With the continuous replenishment of the benefit models of this policy, and the effect of early consumption caused by the withdrawal of preferential purchase tax at the end of the year, we expect the performance of the auto market will continue to be brilliant in the fourth quarter. Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of the 1.6-2.0L economy passenger car that has clearly occupied the market share of small-displacement cars under 1.6L has maintained 32.23% year-on-year, but its market share has continued to fall to 21.6%. The year-on-year growth rate of 2.0-2.5L passenger cars in mid- to high-end increased slightly to 3.5%, and the market share also rose by 0.3%. Higher-middle-class cars and luxury cars with a displacement of 2.5L or above maintained high growth, showing a rebound from the previous quarter. Overall, the effect of energy-saving subsidies was further highlighted, and the small-displacement share was restored.